For one thing, she’ll have more reflexive support from Democratic elites and Democratic-leaning media outlets, some of whom are rooting for Sanders right now.
We could also see a phenomenon where Republicans are piling on Clinton in every which way, which could increase the amount of sympathy for her.
“Clinton threatened national security and/or broke the law by maintaining a private email server” is better, but less self-evident. Some of the other parts of the five-pronged test would argue for the scandal being important. 3: “Does the scandal reify/reinforce/‘prove’ a core negative perception about the candidate? 2: “Does the scandal cut against a core element of the candidate’s brand?
Though not as much as the Bush campaign is grappling with remaining out of the top three candidate tier …
natesilver: Yeah, every single one of the Republican candidates would trade places with Clinton right now.
He has to make a decision in an environment of uncertainty. natesilver: I’m skeptical that Biden will run too, but it would be really helpful to Clinton right now to have a few weeks without a further revelation in the email story.
And the “drip, drip, drip” nature of the story has made that difficult.
This is a video of Lena Dunham (“Girls”) joking with Clinton about Lenny Kravitz’s “wardrobe malfunction” in an effort to be “likable.” Or millennial-friendly. hjenten-heynawl: I don’t play these analyses games too well, but here’s what I do know: What I had generally expected heading into the campaign is that Clinton’s numbers would come back to where they were in 2008.
Her favorable ratings have been a bit worse, but she is polling at the same level as the generic Republican (Jeb Bush), which matches up with what you’d expect given the generic presidential ballot and Obama’s approval rating.
At least in terms of their chances of winning their party’s nomination. And in this day and age of polarized politics, it would take something truly special for Clinton to be anything but a generic Democrat.
hjenten-heynawl: Here’s my general thought: I think the email scandal has brought Clinton’s numbers down somewhat. faraic: Agreed for the most part — but not “generic.” Establishment. natesilver: Some of the risk to Clinton is if there IS another shoe to drop.
faraic: Devil’s advocate: Couldn’t you say the sound bite is “Hillary Rodham Clinton kept classified information improperly.” Well, that’s not sexy either but … natesilver: It’s not “the president had sex with a White House intern” exactly.